1. bookVolume 30 (2022): Issue 1 (March 2022)
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
1338-3973
First Published
23 May 2011
Publication timeframe
4 times per year
Languages
English
access type Open Access

Impact of Changes in Short-Term Rainfall on Design Floods: Case Study of the Hnilec River Basin, Slovakia

Published Online: 13 Apr 2022
Volume & Issue: Volume 30 (2022) - Issue 1 (March 2022)
Page range: 68 - 74
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
1338-3973
First Published
23 May 2011
Publication timeframe
4 times per year
Languages
English
Abstract

The research aims to analyze changes in the predicted short-term rainfall intensities at the Telgárt climatological station and the subsequent use of these predicted rainfall intensities for estimating design floods. The area of interest selected is the upper Hnilec River basin in Slovakia. The research is divided into two parts: In the first part, the authors have focused on analyzing future seasonal changes and the trend of shortterm rainfall intensities and estimating the scaling exponents of short-term rainfall. In the second part, the observed and predicted short-term rainfall intensities have been applied to estimate the design floods in the study area, using the Soil Conservation Service – Curve Number method (SCS CN). The results indicate that for the future periods, there will be a shift in the rainfall maxima of about one week to an earlier period in July compared to the historical period. The changes in the short-term rainfall trends were detected in the 60-, 120- and 180-minute rainfall durations at the 90% significance level. The results of the design discharges predict higher values in the near future in the case of the 10- and 20-year return periods and higher values in the 50- and 100-year return periods for the remote future.

Keywords

Adornado, H. A. - Yoshida, M. (2010) GIS-based watershed analysis and surface run-off estimation using curve number (CN) value. J. Environ. Hydrol, 2010, Vol. 18, pp. 1–10. Search in Google Scholar

Ban, N. - Schmidli, J. - Schär, Ch. (2015) Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Geophysical Research Letters [online]. Vol. 42, no. 4, pp. 1165–1172 ISSN 00948276. doi:10.1002/2014GL06258810.1002/2014GL062588 Search in Google Scholar

Beranová, R. - Kyselý, J. - Hanel, M. (2018) Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 132, No. 1–2, pp. 515–527. ISSN 14344483. doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2102-010.1007/s00704-017-2102-0 Search in Google Scholar

Böhm, U. - Kücken, M. - Ahrens, W. - Block, A. - Hauffe, D. - Keuler, K. Rockel, B. Will, A. (2006) CLM - The climate version of LM: brief description and long-term applications, COSMO Newsletter, No. 6, pp. 225–235. Search in Google Scholar

Burlando, P. - Rosso, R. (1996) Scaling and muliscaling models of depth-duration-frequency curves for storm precipitation. Journal of Hydrology. Vol. 187, no. 1, pp. 45–64. Search in Google Scholar

Burn, D. H. (1997)Catchment similarity for regional flood frequency analysis using seasonality measures,” J. Hydrol., Vol. 202, pp. 212–230.10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00068-1 Search in Google Scholar

Caletka, M. - Michalková, M. - Karásek, P. - Fučík, P. (2020) Improvement of SCS-CN Initial Abstraction Coefficient in the Czech Republic: A Study of Five Catchments. Water. 12. pp. 1-28. 10.3390/w12071964.10.3390/w12071964 Search in Google Scholar

CLM - Community Land Model (© 2005), Overview, NCAR Earth System Laboratory (NESL) a collaborative project between TSS and the CESM community, © 2005, UCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, USA. Available from: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/tss/clm, [accessed 13 Jan. 2022]. Search in Google Scholar

Copernicus Land Monitoring Service, CORINE Land Cover, Copernicus Programme, Available from: https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover [accessed 13 Jan. 2020]. Search in Google Scholar

Danáčová, M., Földes, G., Labat, M. M., Kohnová, S., Hlavčová, K. (2020) Estimating the Effect of Deforestation on Runoff in Small Mountainous Basins in Slovakia, Water, Vol. 12, 3113, 2020. Search in Google Scholar

Easterling, D. R. - Meehl, G. A. - Parmesan, C. - Changnon, S. A. - Karl, T. R. - Mearns, L. O. (2000) Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts, American Association for the Advancement of Science. doi:10.1126/science.289.5487.206810.1126/science.289.5487.206811000103 Search in Google Scholar

Fan, F. - Deng Y. - Hu, X. - Weng, Q. (2013) Estimating composite curve number using an improved SCS-CN method with remotely sensed variables in Guangzhou, China, Remote Sensing, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 1425–1438. Search in Google Scholar

Faško, P. - Šťastný, P. - Švec, M. - Kajaba, P. (2015) Occurrence and spatial distribution of high daily and multi-day precipitation totals in Slovakia. (in Slovak) Search in Google Scholar

Iliopoulou, T. - Koutsoyiannis D. - Montanari, A. (2018) Characterizing and Modeling Seasonality in Extreme Rainfall. Water Resources Research 2018, Vol. 54, 9, pp. 6242–6258. ISSN 00431397. Doi: 10.1029/2018WR02336010.1029/2018WR023360 Search in Google Scholar

IPCC (2013) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” [online]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA. Search in Google Scholar

Kendall, M. G. (1955)Rank correlation methods,” Griffin, London, UK. Search in Google Scholar

Koutsoyiannis, D. - Efstratiadis, A. - Mamassis, N. - Christofides, A., (2008) On the credibility of climate predictions. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 53, 4, pp. 671–684. ISSN 2150-3435. doi:10.1623/hysj.53.4.67110.1623/hysj.53.4.671 Search in Google Scholar

Labat, M. M. - Aleksić, M. - Hlavčová, K. - Földes, G. (2021) Impact of resolution of DEM on the calculation of design floods in a small mountainous basin, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 609. No. 1. IOP Publishing, 012060. Search in Google Scholar

Labat, M. M. - Földes, G. - Kohnová, S. - Hlavčová, K. (2020) Land use and climate change impact on runoff in a small mountainous catchment in Slovakia, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science.10.1088/1755-1315/444/1/012036 Search in Google Scholar

Lapin, M. - Bašták-Ďurán, I. - Gera, M. - Hrvoľ, J. - Kremler, M. - Melo, M (2012) New climate change scenarios for Slovakia based on global and regional general circulation models, Acta Met. Univ. Comenius. Vol. 37, pp. 25–74, 2012. Search in Google Scholar

Lenderink, G. - Attema, J. (2015) A simple scaling approach to produce climate scenarios of local precipitation extremes for the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters Vol. 10, 8, p. 085001 ISSN 1748-9326. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/08500110.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085001 Search in Google Scholar

Madsen, H. - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K. - Mikkelsen, P. S. (2009) Update of regional intensity-duration-frequency curves in Denmark: Tendency towards increased storm intensities. Atmospheric Research, Vol. 92, no. 3, pp. 343–349. ISSN 01698095. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.01.01310.1016/j.atmosres.2009.01.013 Search in Google Scholar

Mann, H. B. (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 245‒259. Search in Google Scholar

Maracchi, G. - Sirotenko, O. - Bindi, M. (2005) Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the temperate regions: Europe, Climatic Change. B.m.: Springer, pp. 117–135. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5939-710.1007/s10584-005-5939-7 Search in Google Scholar

Markovič, L. - Faško, P. - Bochníček, O. (2018) Maximum amounts of 2- and 5-day total atmospheric precipitation in Slovakia in the period 1951-2010. Acta Hydrologica Slovaca. Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 3–10. Search in Google Scholar

Menabde, M. - Seed, A. - Pegram, G. (1999) A simple scaling model for extreme rainfall [online]. [cit. 11. máj 2019]. Dostupné na: doi:10.1029/1998WR900012.10.1029/1998WR900012 Search in Google Scholar

Mishra, S. K. - Singh, V. P. (2003) SCS-CN Method, Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) Methodology, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Dordrecht, pp. 84–146. Search in Google Scholar

Mishra, S. K. - Singh, V. P. (2004) Long-term hydrological simulation based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number. Hydrological Processes, Vol. 18, No. 7, pp. 1291–1313.10.1002/hyp.1344 Search in Google Scholar

Mishra, S. K. - Pandey, A. - Singh, V. P. (2012) Special Issue on Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) Methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 17, No. 11, pp. 1157–1157.10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000694 Search in Google Scholar

Moretti, G. - Montanari, A. (2008) Inferring the flood frequency distribution for an ungauged basin using a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 1141–1152.10.5194/hess-12-1141-2008 Search in Google Scholar

Ntegeka, V. - Willems, P. (2008) Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100-year time series of 10 min rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium. Water Resources Research [online]. Vol. 44, No. 7, ISSN 00431397. doi:10.1029/2007WR006471.10.1029/2007WR006471 Search in Google Scholar

Pasák, V. - Janeček, M. - Šabata, M. (1983) Protection of agricultural soil against erosion, Methodologies for introducing research results into agricultural practice (in Czech: Ochrana zemědelské půdy před erozí. Metodiky pro zavádění výsledků výzkumu do zemědelské praxe), Institute of Scientific and Technical Information for Agriculture, Prague, CZ. Search in Google Scholar

Pascale, S. - Lucarini, V. - Feng, X. - Porporato, A. - Ul Hasson, S. (2016) Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 46, Nos. 3–4, pp. 1331–1350. ISSN 0930-7575. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2648-410.1007/s00382-015-2648-4 Search in Google Scholar

Pecho, J. - Markovič, L. - Faško, P. - Bochníček, O. (2019) Spatial and temporal variability and changes in maximum 2-days precipitation totals in Slovakia over the period 1951-2017. Geophysical Research Abstract. Vol. 21, p. 1 Search in Google Scholar

Singh, P. K. - Mishra, S. K. - Berndtsson, R. - Jain M. K. - Pandey, R. P. (2015) Development of a Modified SMA Based MSCS-CN Model for Runoff Estimation. Water Resources Management Vol. 29, No. 11, pp. 4111–4127.10.1007/s11269-015-1048-1 Search in Google Scholar

Soltani, S. - Helfi, R. - Almasi, P. - Modarres, R. (2017) Regionalization of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency using a Simple Scaling Model. Water Resources Management. Vol. 31, No. 13, pp. 4253–4273. ISSN 0920-4741. doi:10.1007/s11269-017-1744-010.1007/s11269-017-1744-0 Search in Google Scholar

Soriano, E. - Mediero, L. - Garijo, C. (2020) Quantification of Expected Changes in Peak Flow Quantiles in Climate Change by Combining Continuous Hydrological Modelling with the Modified Curve Number Method. Water Resources Management, Vol. 34, No.14, pp. 4381–4397.10.1007/s11269-020-02670-w Search in Google Scholar

Soulis, K. X. - Valiantzas, J. D. (2012) SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds-the two-CN system approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 1001–1015.10.5194/hess-16-1001-2012 Search in Google Scholar

Svoboda, V. - Hanel, M. - Máca, P. - Kyselý, J. (2016) Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic. J. Hydrol. Hydromech. Vol. 64, No. 4, pp. 415–425.10.1515/johh-2016-0036 Search in Google Scholar

Štefunková, Z. - Hlavčová, K. - Labat, M. M. (2019) Assessment of the Impact of Changes in Deforestation under the Effect of Severe Windstorms on Runoff Conditions in Small River Basins, Slovak Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 37–43, 2019. Search in Google Scholar

Tebaldi, C. - Hayhoe, K. - Arblaster, J. M. - Meehl, G. A. (2006) Going to the extremes: An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events, Springer, The Netherlands. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9051-410.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 Search in Google Scholar

Tedela, N. H. - Mccutcheon, S. C. - Rasmussen, T. C. - Hawkins, R. H. - Swank, W. T. - Campbell, J. L. - Adams, M. B. - Jackson, C. R. - Tollner, E. W. (2012) Runoff Curve Numbers for 10 Small Forested Watersheds in the Mountains of the Eastern United States. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 17, No. 11, pp. 1188–1198.10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000436 Search in Google Scholar

Trenberth, K. - Dai, E. A. - RASMUSSEN, R. M. - PARSONS, D. B. (2003) The changing character of precipitation [online], Sep. 2003. doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-9-120510.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205 Search in Google Scholar

USDA–NRCS (1954) Estimation of Direct Runoff from Storm Rainfall, National Engineering Handbook, Part 630 – Hydrology, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture - Soil Conservation Service, Washington, DC. Search in Google Scholar

USDA–NRCS (1986) Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds, Technical Release 55 [online]. U. S. Dept. of Agriculture - Natural Resources Conservation Service, Engineering Division, Washington, DC, 164 pp. Search in Google Scholar

USDA–NRCS (1989) Engineering Hydrology Training Series. Module 104 - Runoff Curve Number Computations, Study Guide. 2, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture - Soil Conservation Service, Washington, DC. Search in Google Scholar

USDA–NRCS (2004) Estimation of Direct Runoff from Storm Rainfall, National Engineering Handbook, Part 630 – Hydrology, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture - Natural Resources Conservation Service, Washington, DC, pp. 10-1 – 10-22. Search in Google Scholar

Verma, R. K. - Verma, S. - Sharma, N. K. - Mishra, S. K. - Pandey, A. (2021) Improved SCS-CN Model Incorporating Storm Duration and Rainfall-based Initial Abstraction for Runoff Estimation. Preprints 2021, 2021040352 Search in Google Scholar

Vojtek, M., Vojteková, J. (2016) GIS-based Approach to Estimate Surface Runoff in Small Catchments: A Case Study. Quaestiones Geographicae, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 97–116.10.1515/quageo-2016-0030 Search in Google Scholar

Warner, R. C. - Agouridis, C. T. - Vingralek, P. T. - Fogle, A. W. (2010) Reclaimed Mineland Curve Number Response to Temporal Distribution of Rainfall. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 46, No. 4, pp. 724–732.10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00444.x Search in Google Scholar

Yu, P. S.H - Yang, T. CH. - Lin, CH.-SH. (2004) Regional rainfall intensity formulas based on scaling property of rainfall. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 295, Nos. 1–4, pp. 108–123.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.003 Search in Google Scholar

ZBGIS®, The Geodesy, Cartography and Cadaster Institute, Map Client, Authority of the Slovak Republic, Geodetic and Cartographic Institute Bratislava [online], [accessed 17 Feb. 2020]. Search in Google Scholar

Zope, P. E. - Eldho T. I. - Jothiprakash, V. (2016) Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Mumbai City, India. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, Vol. 08, No. 07, pp. 756–765. ISSN 1945-3094. doi:10.4236/jwarp.2016.8706110.4236/jwarp.2016.87061 Search in Google Scholar

Recommended articles from Trend MD

Plan your remote conference with Sciendo