Family And Economic Growth In Poland

Abstract In the article we test the hypothesis that the weakening of family ties, as measured by the reduction in the number of marriages, a cascade of divorces and the decrease in the fertility rate, has brought about an economic slowdown in Poland. We also suppose that the economic growth and increased standard of living influence the increasing number of marriages, the fertility rate, and results in a decreasing number of divorces. We verify these hypotheses using an econometric model of economic growth with the family social capital. The model consists of seven stochastic equations and exhibits the feedback between GDP, labour productivity and some variables representing social capital, in particular the marriage disintegration ratio. We try to verify the hypothesis of the existence of an optimal divorce rate for economic growth.


Introduction
In this article 1 we discuss three variables representing family social capital: marriage, fertility and divorce and their feedback with economic growth and level.
The decreasing number of marriages, increasing number of divorces, and the low fertility rate are key demographic and social problems in Poland. The effect of the low fertility rate on the population's demographic situation (i.e. its aging) and the deterioration of social structures will not be examined in this article, despite the fact that within the next decades the demographic structure may destabilize Poland's social and economic development.
We verify five hypotheses in a shorter, however still rather long-term perspective. The first three concern marriages, fertility rates, and economic growth: Hypothesis 1 is universally recognized. It appears that hypotheses 3, 4 are relatively original.
Together with the verification of the hypotheses we analyse their long-term delayed effects (lags). On one hand, we justify this phenomenon by the fact that family decisions, and social demographics in general, are strongly anchored in tradition and culture. On the other hand, even if the decisions to enter into marriage are no longer made 'until death do us part', they nevertheless are of a long-term nature 6 . In addition, decisions concerning parenting and divorce are taken 'forever', i.e. they remain in effect for the rest of one's life 7 . In other words, they are decisions which have the most permanent long-term effects, that require planning for many years into the future, and are therefore associated with any assessment of one's entire life. This provides a framework for the analysis of many lags.
In this article we examine the mutual interactions between the disintegration of the family and the level and growth of economy. We verify this hypothesis by using an econometric model of growth with variables representing family social capital.
In section 4 we attempt to summarize the lively discussions concerning the connections between family social capital and economic growth which took place at a series of conferences in 2009-2013. If Freud was right in claiming that "a fundamental condition for health is the ability to love and to work," then any measures aimed at improving the reconciliation of work and family (WFB -Work Family Balance) would seem highly important and necessary 9 .

The Role of Family and Family Social Capital
Until the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-eighteenth century, the family home was the most common place to work. This obviously created positive relationships between Unauthentifiziert | Heruntergeladen 09.02.20 15:00 UTC family activities and work. Household work was usually closely identified with the 'business' of professional work. During the Industrial Revolution there was an increased occurrence of people carrying on their professional work outside the household. Work in the 'business world' carried with it greater pecuniary benefits than work in the home. This strengthened the feeling that there was a conflict relationship between work and family. This led some to the doubtful conclusion that paid 'outside work' was of greater importance than unpaid work on behalf of the family at home. Some associate living for oneself with freedom, modernity, and striving for a fulfilling and attractive self-realization. Others assess this phenomenon negatively, as contrary to the social and familial nature of man, leading to loneliness.
"...man as an individual is not only a member of some sort of community, but a social being, which means relational in nature. A person becomes an individual in the fullest sense of the word when he becomes engaged and participates in the lives of others (and for others), and endowing himself by others, becomes someone for others" 10 . A human being becomes a person in family surroundings and in the working community. Action aimed at oneself -self-fulfilment -is akin to a hedonistic attitude. One may ask whether the search for self-fulfilment in place of engagement with and commitment to others is not a significant reason for the relatively low quality of life of hedonists in comparison to the followers of eudemonism, a system of ethics that evaluates the morality of actions in terms of their capacity to produce happiness 11 .
Since the mid-nineties, econometric studies of economic growth have attributed increasing importance to social capital. An important component of this capital is family social capital, i.e. the capital of family ties. We have witnessed sporadic attempts to introduce such capital into the econometric models of growth 12 .
Adam Smith, referring to the Stoic idea of proper conduct and concepts of Aristotle, wrote that: "Among those primary objects which nature had recommended to us as eligible, was the prosperity of our family, of our friends, our country" 13 .
The most durable connections which unite people are family ties, i.e. ties between spouses, parents and children, grandparents and grandchildren, and between siblings and kin. The sustainability and importance of family relationships are rooted in tradition, culture, religion and the institution of marriage 14 . The durability and strength of the ties between parents with children is additionally dependent on the natural and instinctive bonds which accompany motherhood and fatherhood 15 . Children's feelings are drawn even to those parents whom they Unauthentifiziert | Heruntergeladen 09.02.20 15:00 UTC did not have a chance to meet, and are negatively aroused toward those who, according to 'objective' social assessments, poorly fulfil their parental obligations.
We love and are loved most often and most permanently within the family, and the quality of our lives and feelings of happiness and security are dependent on our family ties 16 .
It seems that relationships with people outside the family circle are weaker and are not able to replace family ties due to, inter alia, the lack of an 'irrevocable' kinship, lack of an institutional character, and the weaker cultural and religious foundations for their sustainability.
From among a large number of areas and aspects of life, for many years Poles have confirmed that they achieve the greatest satisfaction from their children, marriage and relationships with their loved ones in the family 17 . In turn, failures or shortcomings in this respect are among the most destructive factors, disrupting their quality of life.
The basis of the family is marriage 18 . The source of durability of the family consists mainly of the unbreakable bonds of blood as well as the legal institution of marriage. Strong support for the durability of marriage can be found in tradition and culture and, especially in Poland, in religion 19 . The Catholic religion raises the institution of marriage to that of an inviolable sacrament. Pope John Paul II, in his Letter to families stressed that a human being "cannot fully find himself or herself except by the disinterested giving of oneself ... giving of oneself is by its very essence permanent and irrevocable 20 . Despite this unequivocal declaration on the permanency and irrevocability of marriage, the Catholic Church's canon law does envision the annulment of marriage in certain particular situations 21 . We call attention to this here because, according to hypothesis no. 4, not all divorces are harmful to the economy.
In a context wider than just the family, John Paul II asks: 'Can a person be fully realized without taking into account his nature as a social being 'with' others and 'for' others?" 22 The disintegration of the family, leading in extreme cases to divorce, is a crisis of a social nature to the spouses 23 .
L. Kocik declares that the family, "connects an individual person and all phases of his or her life with society, culture, the nation, and social classes. It motivates his or her economic, social, and cultural activities, and shapes the individual nature of a man or woman" 24 . In a similar vein, Z. Tyszka writes that the microcosm of family is integrated into the overall social, economic, and cultural processes of a given country 25 .
J. Czapinski and T. Panek add that "persons in a marital state are happier than those who are single 26 , have a higher income, experience warmth and emotional support ... and live longer than single persons" 27 . L. Kocik agreed that "a good family creates the best environment for the initial, deepest socialization, and becomes for the individual an irreplaceable source of security and stability, as well as an inspiration to development and self-realization" 28  By family social capital we understand the ties between family members which serve them and at the same time are not in conflict with the public interest. These bonds are expressed in the attitudes of respect, trust, love, interest, care, support and concern for family members.
We will assess family capital by measuring the relationship between the total number of marriages in existence to the number of new marriages entered into in a given year (positive family capital), and the relationship between the number of divorces to the number of existing marriages (negative family capital) 32 . These relationships will be treated as indicators of: 1. The durability or impermanence of the family.
3. The ability to communicate and cooperate with one's family and social surroundings (including the economic and professional dimension) 33 . 4. Uncertainty and risk in people's lives 34 , because one cannot fully replace family bonds with ties with persons outside the family.
In Poland, at the beginning of the 1960s approximately 230,000 marriages were concluded annually. In 2011 this number fell to 207,000. However, the number of divorces rose by threeand-a-half times, from approximately 18,000 in 1960 to 65,000 in 2011.
Not every divorce reduces a family's social capital. In cases of prolonged, permanent conflict between spouses, when the marriage no longer fulfils its important functions, does not offer care, security, concern, and doesn't satisfy the feelings or meet the emotional needs of the partners, divorce can be the lesser of two evils, than to save a failed marriage at any price.
In practice, determining the limits beyond which a marriage becomes irreparable and divorce a practical necessity is infinitely difficult. This difficulty stems from the need to take into account the interests of all the family's members, including children 35 , and not only during the divorce but also long afterwards. A divorce may affect children until the end of their lives, and even the lives of future generations.
Giddens 36 stressed that one of the consequences of a divorce is the loss "confidence in own judgments and capabilities, and may come to feel that planning for the future is valueless".
Persons undergoing a divorce "become discouraged about setting long-range or even short-term goals, much less working towards these goals".
Therefore, we hypothesize that the disintegration of the family -measured as the growth in the number of divorces and decline in the number of new marriages in relation to the number of existing marriages -slow down economic growth. Thus, divorces are connected with a slowdown in the economy; not as a cause, but as a proxy for unobserved family social capital (family disintegration).
In the tradition of most societies, marriage is the most public and most solemnly concluded partnership agreement. One element which gives it such critical importance is that is concluded for an indefinite period of time (traditionally: "until death do us part"). In addition the agreement is accorded a civil status -it is recorded by the relevant institutions, and its dissolution usually requires a judicial decision. Divorce, viewed as failure to comply with this particular (marriage) agreement, reduces general confidence in the concept of adherence to contracts (keeping one's word). We posit that this could undermine confidence in the fulfilment of various work-related obligations 37 .

Results of Verification of the Hypotheses
The model of economic growth with family social capital contains seven stochastic equations estimated using the ordinary least squares method 38 . The model's equations are presented in the Annex. Family social capital is described by the equations of marriage, fertility rates, and divorce. Economic growth (growth of labour productivity -GDP per employer) is dependent on these variables. We formulate five hypotheses.

Fertility rate
H1. The first, simplified hypothesis initially read: The decline in the number of marriages has caused a decline in women's fertility rates. To be more precise, it should read: The decrease in the ratio of concluded marriages (in relation to existing marriages) resulted, with a year's lag, in a decline in the overall fertility rate of women. This hypothesis was confirmed . This model is characterized by a very high fit R 2 = 0.996. Other variables in the model 39 are: wage inequality (-), the unemployment rate (-), and real wages (+). The obtained results allow for the conclusion that in the second half of the 1980s the decline in fertility was substantially caused by a decrease in the ratio of marriages 40 . However, the main reasons were the increases in wage inequality and unemployment. The growth in wages was not able to neutralize the significant and strong impact of these variables. Hence the catastrophically low fertility rate of women in Poland has its source not in the demographic factors, but in economic conditions. Job insecurity and the growing sense of (relative) poverty were, despite the increase in average real wages, the main reasons for the decrease in fertility rates.

Marriages
H2. The increase in labour productivity and the consequential increase in the level GDP per capita, caused an increase in the ratio of marriages. This hypothesis was confirmed . The increased growth of GDP per capita in the last ten years, as well as the current level of this variable, significantly influenced the ratio of concluded marriages. In addition to these two variables, the wage inequality (GINI) negatively affected (both currently as well as with delays of one and two years) the marriage rate. The wage and income inequality increase the likelihood of differences in wealth between persons seeking to marry, which is not conducive to making a decision to get married. The divorce rate also negatively effects the marriage rate, with a delay of about five or six years. Divorces increase the sense of the instability and Unauthentifiziert | Heruntergeladen 09.02.20 15:00 UTC impermanence of marriage, and hence discourage persons from concluding them. This model is also characterized by a high fit: R 2 = 0.95.

Economic growth -H3 and H4
H3. The decline in women's fertility rate caused a slowdown in the growth of GDP per employer.
This hypothesis was confirmed with a probability of 94%. The birth of a child constitutes a motivation for parents and the other members of a family to strive to secure the best possible conditions for the development of the child. One the major components of this endeavour are making efforts to earn more money or achieve higher income. The decline in fertility rates which took place in Poland brought about a weakening of the efforts made in this direction.

H4. Upon reaching a certain threshold level, the increase in the divorce ratio causes
a slowdown in economic growth, and it is possible to empirically determine this threshold level.
The relationship between divorce ratio and economic growth has the parabola form. The hypothesis was confirmed. In the analyzed period (1967-2011), the number of divorces per 1000 marriages was ranged from close to three to eight. The threshold was estimated at the level of 2.9 divorces per 1000 marriages. Thus, throughout the entire period divorces slowed economic growth 41  is the main reason for the increase in the divorce rate. Autoregression is also significant, which can be interpreted as weakness of traditional family customs and growing permissiveness. Each divorce creates an alibi for the next one. This model is characterized by a high fit: R 2 = 0.94.
A good economic situation increases the marriage rate and limits the divorce rate. Both of these phenomena increase economic growth. In addition, an increase in the marriage rate increases the fertility rate of marriages, and it also accelerates economic growth. And this closes the feedback. So here we have a kind of spiral based economic-family feedback, feedback between economic growth and marriages, fertility rate, and divorces.

Opponents' Arguments and Our Responses
A number of reservations have been voiced with respect to the hypotheses concerning the impact of marriages, fertility and divorces on economic growth.
1. "The relationship between marriages, divorces, and economic growth is of a symptomatic nature -it is one of appearances, and not cause-and-effect". We believe that the resolution of this dispute must be made by reaching agreement on the causal character of this relationship before building the model. Then the significant estimate parameters of variables marriage and divorce will, to some extent, make the researched hypothesis more likely. They cannot, however, overcome the suspicion that this relationship is based on appearances. In an earlier article 42 , as in the present one, the essential course of argument was as follows: -family life is very important for the majority of people, -marriage is a particularly durable (to many people an irrevocable) obligation, and divorce is usually based on the principle that one (or both) of the parties breached the partnership agreement. For many family members, the consequences of this breach (divorce) are of a catastrophic dimension. As affirmed by Wallerstein and Blakeslee 43 , time does not fully heal the effects of this event, -the large number of decisions to marry and the small number of decisions to divorce testify to the social propensity and acceptance of the idea of entering into cooperative partnerships, not only as families but also in the workplace (P. Starosta), -this propensity to cooperate (similarly to trust in other people) stimulates economic growth.
2. "The influence of marriages and divorces on economic growth is one of appearances".
Although one may apply causality tests, the possibility of resolving the problem is limited.
Since previous events may only be causes, and not results, of subsequent events, our results 5. "Following a divorce, women often take up a job and work very efficiently, which contributes to GDP growth". One reason is economic compulsion and/or the desire to preserve their "pre-divorce" standard of living. The burden of professional work and family/household responsibilities in such a situation tends to be excessive, debilitating 48 . One may assume that in the short term the effect on economic growth would be positive (this would be an outcome of the substitution effect), while over the longer term the consequences are likely to be negative (the complementary effect).
The positive effect in this case is a statistical illusion. For example, let us assume that prior to the divorce a woman was not working professionally, but caring for a child of preschool age. Following a divorce, the woman takes up professional work (contributing to a growth in GDP), and the child is sent to a kindergarten (also contributing to GDP growth). If the child had better care at home rather than in kindergarten, the second increase in GDP is a statistical illusion, because the statistics do not include household work in GDP. However, if the chores are transferred to a service institution, then they are included in GDP.
Unauthentifiziert | Heruntergeladen 09.02.20 15:00 UTC 6. "Following a divorce, an additional apartment is needed for one of the former spouses, sometimes also a second car. Thus demand grows, especially for durable goods". This is true, but only in the case where there is an increase in the aggregated income of the former spouses.
It is worth mentioning that in Poland it was noted that the divorce rate had a positive impact on investments into physical capital, and through them, accelerating economic growth.
At the same time the direct negative impact of the divorce rate on GDP growth per capita is ten times larger, and therefore the overall effect is negative 49 . 7. Many of the proffered arguments refer to the divorcing spouses and effects which concern them directly. It seems however that more significance is attached to the indirect effects, We propose instead to measure the durability and quality of family relationships using marriage frequency and the frequency of divorce. Marriage is the beginning of a new, extended traditional family. Divorce is not the end of the family, but is a manifestation of a very serious crisis. For this reason we propose that divorce be included as one of the measures of family social capital. We believe that the growth of family social capital, measured by the rate of new marriages to the population, is characterized by the willingness to build lasting relationships and cooperation among people (future spouses). Spouses often do not know each other previously, may come from different social groups, nationalities, etc. Conversely, divorce is the dissolution of ties and the end of cooperation between people who potentially could be the closest (culturally, emotionally, institutionally, traditionally, religiously), i.e. spouses. The measurement adopted by us may be characterized as bridging family social capital, which encourages economic growth.
11. The main conclusion of our discussion is the following: the interdependence of family and the economy means that sustainable growth needs the protection of the family environment.
Co-workers should support each other in fulfilling family roles. Employers seeking to integrate employees should not do so at the expense of their families. All these obligations -both positive and negative -are justified by the interdependence of families and the economy.
It is sometimes argued and alleged that this conclusion is of an evaluative, axiological nature, and that it is not a scientific statement. Please note, however, that we use the term should in the context of the economic consequences for economic growth 51 . This is, of course, only one of the many negative dimensions of the impact an unstable family life has for each of us 52 .
Acceptance of the proposed approach and the results obtained provide arguments in favour of the traditional family model 53  According to Popper's rule, theories are scientific if they can be falsified and nothing beyond that, which means that one can make a prognosis that something will or will not happen.
Usually such predictions do not allow for value statement 56 . In our case, however, the hypothesis that family stability accelerates economic growth is verified on the basis of an econometric model, which is also a legitimate way of verifying predictions.

Conclusions
We have analyzed the mutual interactions between the family and the economy. The family has been characterized by the rates of marriage, fertility and divorce. The economy was characterized by the level and rate of economic growth. A healthy economy and a good economic growth rate are conducive to the family: they have a positive effect on marriage and fertility rates, and they limit the number of divorces. Conversely, an increase in the rates of marriage and fertility, reduce divorces and promote economic growth. Hence there is a spiral: the better the state of the family, the higher the family social capital, and the greater the rate of economic growth. The higher the level of the economy and the rate of and economic growth, the higher the level of family social capital, which in turn means more marriages, more children, and fewer divorces. These interrelationships are characterized by numerous, and often long, lags, reaching even 12 years.
This rather idyllic picture is disrupted by the appearance of a destructive factor. This is wage inequality which reduces the number of marriages and the fertility rate and encourages divorces. Hence, inequality, through the intermediary of the family rates, restricts economic growth. In addition, the unemployment rate negatively affects the fertility rate, also bringing about a disparity in the access to work. The slowdown in economic growth has a destructive influence on family social capital and conversely.
We have conducted our analysis on the assumption that there is a cause-and-effect link between the structure of the family and the economy, which we attempted to justify in Section 4.
Our research results show the likelihood of such a connection, although we are not able to completely disprove the suspicion that the link might be one of appearances only.
The measure of economic growth used in our analysis is the often criticised rate of GDP growth. We agree that this measure is too narrow and share the postulate that other dimensions should be taken into account, such as the average life expectancy, quality of life, environmental pollution, crime etc. Alternatives to the use of GDP growth will continue to exist and be the object of dispute, because the weight given to each component of well-being used to build a synthetic measure is chosen arbitrarily.
As we have tried to imply in our article, it seems that making the imperfect measure (GDP growth) dependent on other factors of well-being would be a better approach. We believe that economic growth can only be dynamic under the condition of order and harmony; including family durability (limiting the number of divorces by about two-thirds), the optimal inequality of income, and a low crime rate. In our further research we will take into account the demographic structure of a society as well as the average life span.

Family and Economic Growth in Poland
Model equations     wr -average monthly real earnings in national economy, index 1992 = 100 Notes 1 I am very grateful to Professor Michał Majsterek and dr Paweł Baranowski from University of Lodz for comments and helpful advice. 2 Every person has the right to decide about his or her life and to make individual decisions. We assume, however, that living for oneself, i.e. self-fulfillment, especially when accompanied by a large dose of individualism, can become a kind of "self-abuse" or placement of self-restrictions on the social and family nature of man. The acceptance or rejection of the lifestyle of living for oneself is not an easy or simple decision because, inter alia, self-fulfillment appears to be more of a short-term lifestyle, while choosing the family model often extends far into the future, including subsequent generations. 3 Divorce and Economic... 4 These hypotheses are intentionally formulated in a simplified form. In the econometric verification applied to the hypotheses the number of marriages concluded are taken into consideration by the rate of marriage, defined as the number of new marriages divided by the number of existing marriages. The number of divorces are replaced by rate of divorce, defined as the number of divorces divided by the number of existing marriages. It should be noted that both these rates are often defined otherwise, i.e. in relation to the total number of inhabitants. 5 Section 2 is based on the first part of the article by ) with editorial changes. Section 3 is taken from the article (Sztaudynger 2012). 6 If the envisioned period is shorter, the relationship takes on a partnership character. Of course, some partnerships are also 'forever'. 7 According to the research of J.S. Wallerstein and S. Blakeslee (1988), the effects of divorce do not disappear even sometimes after a decade or two. These effects are felt both by the former spouses as well as their children. Irek writes that a man "needs many social groups and socialization circles in order to, in a complementary fashion, realize himself (Irek 2005, p. 66). 11 Czapiński, Panek (ed.) (2009), p. 163. Although this article focuses on social capital in terms of the family (family social capital), we recognize that it also may happen that an individual, even living alone, may create social capital devoting his time (and sometimes wealth) in supporting social organizations and charities. Single individuals also have the alternative, negative in terms of social utility, of living for himself or herself. 12 Sztaudynger (2009). materially, and in terms of having children). On the other hand … in the event of marriages there is a certainty that the investment is legally and socially protected". Slany (2003), pp. 44, 49. 33 Attention was drawn to the aspect of divorce by P. Starosta (19.11.2008, direct conversation).
lost the ability to resolve these types of questions" (Dzionek-Kozłowska 2006, p. 70). Yet Marshall himself suffered a spectacular defeat in his propagation of positivist economics. In his works Marshall taught people to get control of themselves, and show moderation, internal discipline and creativity (Dzionek-Kozłowska 2006, p. 75). 56 Blaug (1997). 57 The Economist Intelligence...