<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>Throughout the twentieth century, United States has been the most desirable destination for international migrants, primarily due to its economic performance and also to American values – work ethics and tolerance of ethnic diversity. This paper aims to test if selected economic indicators might influence international migration. To this end a time series analysis was performed with time series regression model, where lagged values of various macroeconomic indicators were tested for a significant impact on migration flows. This paper also cast a light on U.S. labour migration's legislation and history, as well as current migrant stock characteristics. It gives specific attention to Polish migrant population, as Polish Americans constitute the largest Polish diaspora worldwide. The results of the analysis show that U.S. immigration volumes are sensitive to American unemployment rate and American GDP growth (pull factors). However, analysing Polish migration volumes to the U.S. a significant correlation with selected American indicators was not revealed. On the contrary, Polish migration flows to the U.S. were correlated with Polish economic growth and the Polish unemployment rate fluctuations (push factors).</p>
</abstract>

Throughout the twentieth century, United States has been the most desirable destination for international migrants, primarily due to its economic performance and also to American values – work ethics and tolerance of ethnic diversity. This paper aims to test if selected economic indicators might influence international migration. To this end a time series analysis was performed with time series regression model, where lagged values of various macroeconomic indicators were tested for a significant impact on migration flows. This paper also cast a light on U.S. labour migration's legislation and history, as well as current migrant stock characteristics. It gives specific attention to Polish migrant population, as Polish Americans constitute the largest Polish diaspora worldwide. The results of the analysis show that U.S. immigration volumes are sensitive to American unemployment rate and American GDP growth (pull factors). However, analysing Polish migration volumes to the U.S. a significant correlation with selected American indicators was not revealed. On the contrary, Polish migration flows to the U.S. were correlated with Polish economic growth and the Polish unemployment rate fluctuations (push factors).

Impact of economic conditions on (restricted) immigration to the United States: The Polish case

International Journal of Management and Economics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Throughout the twentieth century, United States has been the most desirable destination for international migrants, primarily due to its economic performance...

	USA

	Immigration total	Immigration from Poland

	Estimates (significance)	Estimates (significance)
U.S. variables
Unemployment (lagged difference)	−77,621.7^*	820.5957
GDP growth (lagged)	43,287.5^*	−421.6084
Per capita GDP (lagged difference)	109.6^*	−.410685
FDI to GDP	8,831,567	−87,336.7
Share of investment in GDP (lagged difference)	70,564.67	−778.4
Polish variables
Unemployment (lagged difference)	N.A.	551.2^*
GDP growth (lagged)	N.A.	−708.3^***
FDI (lagged difference)	N.A.	−7.17e-08
FDI to GDP	N.A.	−25,858.7
Share of investment in GDP (lagged difference)	N.A.	−345.1

Impact of economic conditions on (restricted) immigration to the United States: The Polish case

Article Category: Empirical Paper

Publicado en línea: 18 sept 2021

Páginas: 197 - 208

Recibido: 07 mar 2021

Aceptado: 27 jun 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2021-0014

Palabras clave
Polish migration to the United States, immigration to the United States, impact of business cycle on labour migration, international labour migration, United States immigration law

© 2021 Michał Schwabe, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Chart 1

Correlation between migration volumes and macroeconomic indicators, 1994–2018.

Impact of economic conditions on (restricted) immigration to the United States: The Polish case

Article Category: Empirical Paper

Publicado en línea: 18 sept 2021

Páginas: 197 - 208

Recibido: 07 mar 2021

Aceptado: 27 jun 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2021-0014

Palabras clavePolish migration to the United States, immigration to the United States, impact of business cycle on labour migration, international labour migration, United States immigration law

© 2021 Michał Schwabe, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Chart 1

Correlation between migration volumes and macroeconomic indicators, 1994–2018.

Palabras clave
Polish migration to the United States, immigration to the United States, impact of business cycle on labour migration, international labour migration, United States immigration law