<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The hydrological model SWAT was applied to the upper Altmühl watershed to examine the simulated 10th and 90th percentiles of streamflow, nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N), and total phosphorus loads (TP), using an ensemble of reference climate (1975–2000) and future climate (2046–2070) simulations. A comparison between the two periods showed that in the future, the 90th percentiles of the NO3--N loads increase in all seasons which indicates a trend to increasing diffuse pollution in the mid-term future. Conversely, the 90th percentile TP loads diminished in winter and otherwise remained similar to the reference period. The 10th and 90th percentile changes in the future streamflow followed changes in precipitation, and did not have any apparent influence on extreme nutrient transport events.</abstract>

The hydrological model SWAT was applied to the upper Altmühl watershed to examine the simulated 10th and 90th percentiles of streamflow, nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N), and total phosphorus loads (TP), using an ensemble of reference climate (1975–2000) and future climate (2046–2070) simulations. A comparison between the two periods showed that in the future, the 90th percentiles of the NO3--N loads increase in all seasons which indicates a trend to increasing diffuse pollution in the mid-term future. Conversely, the 90th percentile TP loads diminished in winter and otherwise remained similar to the reference period. The 10th and 90th percentile changes in the future streamflow followed changes in precipitation, and did not have any apparent influence on extreme nutrient transport events.

Simulated future changes of extreme nutrient loads in a mesoscale agricultural watershed in Bavaria / Simulierte zukünftige Änderungen der Extremwerte für Nährstofffrachten in einem mesoskaligen landwirtschaftlichen Einzugsgebiet in Bayern

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Department of Crop Sciences, Division of Agronomy, 3430 Tulln,

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Institute of Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, 1190 Vienna,

Ludwig Maximilians University, Department of Geography, 80333 Munich,

McGill University, Department of Geography, Montreal, QC, H3A 0B9,

Die Bodenkultur: Journal of Land Management, Food and Environment

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

The hydrological model SWAT was applied to the upper Altmühl watershed to examine the simulated 10th and 90th percentiles of streamflow, nitrate nitrogen...

Simulated future changes of extreme nutrient loads in a mesoscale agricultural watershed in Bavaria / Simulierte zukünftige Änderungen der Extremwerte für Nährstofffrachten in einem mesoskaligen landwirtschaftlichen Einzugsgebiet in Bayern

Article Category: Research Article

Published Online: Sep 08, 2016

Page range: 77 - 90

Received: Jan 29, 2016

Accepted: Feb 05, 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/boku-2016-0008

Keywords
hydrological modeling, nutrient transport, climate change, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, 10 and 90 percentiles

© 2016 De Gruyter, www.degruyter.com/view/j/boku

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Simulated future changes of extreme nutrient loads in a mesoscale agricultural watershed in Bavaria / Simulierte zukünftige Änderungen der Extremwerte für Nährstofffrachten in einem mesoskaligen landwirtschaftlichen Einzugsgebiet in Bayern

Article Category: Research Article

Published Online: Sep 08, 2016

Page range: 77 - 90

Received: Jan 29, 2016

Accepted: Feb 05, 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/boku-2016-0008

Keywordshydrological modeling, nutrient transport, climate change, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, 10 and 90 percentiles

© 2016 De Gruyter, www.degruyter.com/view/j/boku

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Keywords
hydrological modeling, nutrient transport, climate change, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, 10 and 90 percentiles