Cross-Sectional Relations Between Slim Cigarettes and Smoking Prevalence

Slim cigarettes were defined in the 2012 draft European Union-Tobacco Product Directive (EU-TPD) as cigarettes with a diameter of less than 7.5mm. Allegations that slim cigarettes may negatively impact tobacco control efforts led the European Commission to propose a ban on them in 2012, which was ultimately rejected. This study investigated whether there is any association between slim cigarettes and smoking prevalence rates, in order to see if these allegations are justified. Data was compiled on the market share of slim cigarettes and smoking prevalence rates from the years 2012, 2006 and 1996. The core 2012 sample (once data limitations were accounted for) consisted of 95 countries. Raw correlations between market shares of slim cigarettes and smoking prevalence rates were first examined, followed by multivariate cross-country regressions where various factors were controlled for. This was done for overall smoking prevalence, as well as for male and female prevalence separately.

Although raw correlations between the slim cigarette market share and smoking prevalence were sometimes positive and statistically significant, this result disappeared in all cases except for one when potential confounding factors were fully controlled for. The correlation between slim cigarette market share and smoking prevalence remained significant only for males in 2012 at levels of statistical significance of 10% or above when cultural and socio-economic factors were fully controlled for. Importantly, for females no positive statistically significant correlations between the slim cigarette market share and smoking prevalence were found for any year. The cross-country variation in smoking prevalence was substantially explained by a number of regional and cultural dummies, as well as socio-economic factors.

This study has found no indication that a higher market share of slim cigarettes was associated with greater smoking prevalence among females, and has failed to find a strong indication among males, once confounding factors were controlled for. [Beitr. Tabakforsch. Int. 27 (2016) 75-99]