Corruption and the Desire to Leave Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Corruption as a Driver of Emigration Intentions

Daniel Auer; Friederike Römer; Jasper Tjaden

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Corruption and the Desire to Leave Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Corruption as a Driver of Emigration Intentions

Daniel Auer

Friederike Römer

and

Jasper Tjaden

| May 02, 2020

IZA Journal of Development and Migration

Volume 11 (2020): Issue 1 (January 2020)

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0007

Keywords
corruption, governance, migration, push factor, emigration intention

© 2020 Daniel Auer, Friederike Römer and Jasper Tjaden, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Relationship of corruption and share of people with migration aspirations.

Relationship between corruption perception and notion that hard work is

Sub-sample analysis

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)

	Rich countries GBP p.c.		Poor countries GBP p.c.		Equal countries GINI coefficient		Unequal countries GINI coefficient		Stable countries Political Stability Index.		Unstable countries Political Stability Index.

	IV accounts	IV value	IV accounts	IV value	IV accounts	IV value	IV accounts	IV value	IV accounts	IV value	IV accounts	IV value
Panel A: emigration desire
Corruption	0.482	0.424*	0.438***	0.269**	0.148	0.103	0.396***	0.254**	0.300**	0.315***	0.745*	-0.234
	(0.552)	(0.253)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.438)	(0.065)	(0.091)	(0.104)	(0.140)	(0.072)	(0.445)	(0.344)

Panel B: emigration plans
	0.203	0.053	0.062***	0.057**	-0.146	0.010	0.055***	0.057***	-0.146	0.010	0.055***	0.057***
	(0.216)	(0.041)	(0.021)	(0.024)	(0.161)	(0.012)	(0.017)	(0.021)	(0.161)	(0.012)	(0.017)	(0.021)

First stage	-0.001	-0.034**	-0.135***	-0.037***	0.002	-0.069***	-0.092***	-0.027***	-0.011*	-0.059***	-0.068*	-0.018*
	(0.005)	(0.017)	(0.033)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.025)	(0.010)	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.039)	(0.010)

Kl-Pa LM	1.332	7.681	15.634	18.775	0.876	18.826	25.283	20.878	10.191	38.655	2.715	2.957
Kl-Pa F	0.657	4.244	9.238	18.176	0.430	30.401	28.929	30.344	8.034	34.053	1.550	1.954
A-RF	0.681	2.389	11.220	5.031	0.111	1.230	11.725	3.053	1.379	10.065	7.501	3.241
Adj. R²	0.067	0.069	0.096	0.107	0.088	0.089	0.093	0.098	0.099	0.098	0.025	0.083

Observations	110638	110638	171743	171743	150571	150571	131810	131810	151850	151850	130531	130531

Full regression table for emigration desire

	OLS			IV: Accounts IV accounts: log no. of debit/credit/e-money accounts per capita.		IV: Value/GDP IV value: log monetary value of cashless payments relative to GDP.
				2^nd stage	1^st stage	2^nd stage	1^st stage
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4a)	(4b)	(5a)	(5b)
Corruption V-Dem Political corruption index.	0.162^*** (0.038)	0.167^*** (0.036)	0.143^*** (0.035)	0.370^** (0.164)		0.167^* (0.093)
IV: accounts and					−0.012^*		−0.037^***
value					(0.007)		(0.008)
IV: corruption 1950					0.146^***		0.196^***
					(0.048)		(0.045)

Corruption			0.056^***	0.050^***	0.018^***	0.056^***	0.016^**
perception			(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.007)
Disagree w/work			0.067^***	0.062^***	0.026^***	0.067^***	0.015^**
hard,…			(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.007)

GDP p.c. (log)	−0.033^**	−0.036^**	−0.033^**	−0.022	−0.035	−0.032^**	−0.025
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.018)	(0.026)	(0.015)	(0.023)
GINI	0.210^***	0.106^*	0.159^***	0.160^***	0.014	0.159^***	0.134
	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.055)	(0.057)	(0.106)	(0.054)	(0.110)
Financial	−0.156^***	−0.086^**	−0.072^**	−0.013	−0.244^***	−0.066	−0.144^*
development	(0.038)	(0.037)	(0.036)	(0.058)	(0.073)	(0.041)	(0.076)
Political stability	−0.016	−0.012	−0.006	0.007	−0.042^*	−0.005	−0.050^**
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.017)	(0.024)	(0.014)	(0.024)
Conflict (>25 BRD)	−0.076^***	−0.078^***	−0.074^***	−0.077^**	0.021	−0.074^***	0.003
	(0.026)	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.030)	(0.041)	(0.026)	(0.042)
Human Freedom	0.090^***	0.094^***	0.083^***	0.115^***	−0.137^***	0.086^***	−0.144^***
Index	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.017)	(0.024)
Female		−0.029^***	−0.031^***	−0.031^***	−0.000	−0.031^***	−0.000
		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.001)
Age		−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.000^***	−0.004^***	−0.000^***
		(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Medium educ.		0.012^**	0.009	0.009	0.008	0.009	−0.001
(ref.: low)		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)
High education		0.017^***	0.017^***	0.017^**	0.012	0.017^***	0.004
(ref.: low)		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.007)
Single		0.044^***	0.046^***	0.051^***	−0.024^***	0.047^***	−0.021^***
		(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)
No children		0.000	−0.004	−0.006^*	0.010^***	−0.004	0.005
		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Urban location		0.028^***	0.029^***	0.033^***	−0.022^***	0.029^***	−0.015^**
		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.004)	(0.007)
2nd inc. quint.		−0.006^*	−0.006	−0.006^*	0.003	−0.006	0.002
(ref.: poorest)		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)
3rd inc. quint.		−0.011^***	−0.009^**	−0.009^**	−0.002	−0.009^**	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.002)
4th inc. quint.		−0.016^***	−0.013^***	−0.013^***	0.001	−0.013^***	0.001
(poorest)		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.002)
Richest inc. quint.		−0.021^***	−0.016^***	−0.017^***	0.003	−0.016^***	0.004
(poorest)		(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.003)
Know someone		0.091^***	0.093^***	0.089^***	0.011^*	0.092^***	0.014^**
abroad		(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.006)
Constant	−0.205	−0.064	−0.083	−0.545	1.810^***	−0.132	1.619^***
	(0.175)	(0.175)	(0.177)	(0.366)	(0.233)	(0.254)	(0.225)
Kleibergen-Paap LM				9.220		30.326
Kleibergen-Paap F				5.361		26.680
Anderson-Rubin F				2.164		2.055
Adjusted R²	0.029	0.086	0.095	0.087		0.095
Observations	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381

Full regression table for plans to emigration within the next 12 months (inverse of CPI corruption control)

	OLS			IV: Accounts IV accounts: log no. of debit/credit/e-money accounts per capita.		IV: Value/GDP IV value: log monetary value of cashless payments relative to GDP.
				2^nd stage	1^st stage	2^nd stage	1^st stage
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4a)	(4b)	(5a)	(5b)
Corruption V-Dem Political corruption index.	0.027^**	0.024^**	0.013	0.098^***		0.077^***
	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.032)		(0.026)
IV: accounts and					−0.008^*		−0.020^***
value					(0.005)		(0.004)
IV: corruption 1950					0.160^***		0.187^***
					(0.023)		(0.023)

Corruption			0.006^***	0.002	0.043^***	0.003^*	0.042^***
perception			(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.004)
Disagree w/work			0.008^***	0.007^***	0.025^***	0.007^***	0.018^***
hard,…			(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.005)	(0.001)	(0.004)

GDP p.c. (log)	−0.009^*	−0.011^**	−0.011^**	−0.008	−0.015	−0.009	−0.010
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.015)	(0.005)	(0.015)
GINI	0.032^***	0.015	0.022^**	0.017	0.080	0.018	0.145^**
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.012)	(0.060)	(0.011)	(0.065)
Financial	−0.021^***	−0.001	−0.003	0.027^*	−0.341^***	0.019	−0.289^***
development	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.016)	(0.039)	(0.014)	(0.040)
Political stability	−0.000	0.001	0.001	0.007^**	−0.058^***	0.006^*	−0.063^***
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.013)	(0.003)	(0.014)
Conflict (>25 BRD)	−0.004	−0.004	−0.005	0.000	−0.047^**	−0.001	−0.057^**
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.023)	(0.005)	(0.024)
Human Freedom	0.014^***	0.011^***	0.010^***	0.016^***	−0.067^***	0.014^***	−0.071^***
Index	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.011)	(0.003)	(0.011)
Female		−0.006^***	−0.006^***	−0.006^***	0.001^**	−0.006^***	0.001^**
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.000)
Age		−0.000^***	−0.000^***	−0.000^***	−0.000	−0.000^***	−0.000
		(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Medium educ.		0.001	0.001	0.001	0.008^**	0.001	0.003
(ref.: low)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.004)
High education		0.006^***	0.006^***	0.006^***	0.011^**	0.006^***	0.007
(ref.: low)		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.004)
Single		0.007^***	0.007^***	0.007^***	−0.004	0.007^***	−0.002
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)
No children		0.003^***	0.003^***	0.002^**	0.010^***	0.002^**	0.007^***
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)
Urban location		0.007^***	0.007^***	0.008^***	−0.011^**	0.008^***	−0.007^*
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.004)
2nd inc. quint.		−0.002^*	−0.002^*	−0.002^*	0.001	−0.002^*	0.001
(ref.: poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
3rd inc. quint.		−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.000	−0.004^***	0.000
(poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
4th inc. quint.		−0.005^***	−0.005^***	−0.005^***	−0.002	−0.005^***	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Richest inc. quint.		−0.002	−0.001	−0.001	−0.002	−0.001	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)
Know someone		0.030^***	0.031^***	0.030^***	0.003	0.030^***	0.005
abroad		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.004)
Constant	−0.010	0.029	0.037	−0.083	1.192^***	−0.054	1.091^***
	(0.052)	(0.051)	(0.052)	(0.063)	(0.142)	(0.056)	(0.150)
Kleibergen-Paap LM				30.816		35.904
Kleibergen-Paap F				25.340		36.128
Anderson-Rubin F				5.789		5.408
Adjusted R²	0.007	0.023	0.025	0.021		0.023
Observations	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381

Full regression table for emigration desire (inverse of WGI corruption control)

	OLS			IV: Accounts IV accounts: log no. of debit/credit/e-money accounts per capita.		IV: Value/GDP IV value: log monetary value of cashless payments relative to GDP.
				2^nd stage	1^st stage	2^nd stage	1^st stage
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4a)	(4b)	(5a)	(5b)
Corruption V-Dem Political corruption index.	0.154^***	0.150^***	0.050	0.343^**		0.212^*
	(0.050)	(0.048)	(0.049)	(0.168)		(0.110)
IV: accounts and					−0.009^*		−0.028^***
value					(0.005)		(0.005)
IV: corruption 1950					0.158^***		0.196^***
					(0.024)		(0.023)

Corruption			0.057^***	0.043^***	0.043^***	0.049^***	0.041^***
perception			(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.004)
Disagree w/work			0.069^***	0.061^***	0.030^***	0.065^***	0.021^***
hard,…			(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.004)

GDP p.c. (log)	−0.038^***	−0.040^***	−0.039^***	−0.032^**	−0.010	−0.035^**	−0.002
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.016)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.014)
	0.200^***	0.097^*	0.155^***	0.136^**	0.081	0.145^**	0.172^**
	(0.057)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.059)	(0.067)
Financial	−0.139^***	−0.072^*	−0.091^**	0.022	−0.372^***	−0.029	−0.295^***
development	(0.043)	(0.042)	(0.041)	(0.072)	(0.041)	(0.054)	(0.041)
Political stability	−0.014	−0.010	−0.011	0.011	−0.057^***	0.001	−0.063^***
	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.020)	(0.013)	(0.016)	(0.013)
Conflict (>25 BRD)	−0.066^**	−0.069^***	−0.070^***	−0.057^*	−0.036	−0.063^**	−0.050^**
	(0.026)	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.030)	(0.024)	(0.028)	(0.025)
	0.081^***	0.084^***	0.067^***	0.094^***	−0.085^***	0.082^***	−0.091^***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.017)	(0.012)	(0.015)	(0.011)
Female		−0.029^***	−0.031^***	−0.031^***	0.001^**	−0.031^***	0.001^**
		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.000)
Age		−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.000	−0.004^***	−0.000
		(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Medium educ.		0.012^**	0.010	0.008	0.010^**	0.009	0.003
(ref.: low)		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.004)
High education		0.017^***	0.017^***	0.017^***	0.012^**	0.017^***	0.006
(ref.: low)		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.004)
Single		0.041^***	0.043^***	0.045^***	−0.007^*	0.044^***	−0.004
		(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.003)
No children		0.000	−0.004	−0.006^*	0.011^***	−0.005	0.007^***
		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)
Urban location		0.026^***	0.026^***	0.029^***	−0.012^***	0.028^***	−0.007^*
		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
2nd inc. quint.		−0.005	−0.005	−0.005	0.001	−0.005	0.000
(ref.: poorest)		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.001)
3rd inc. quint.		−0.011^***	−0.009^**	−0.009^**	−0.001	−0.009^**	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)
4th inc. quint.		−0.015^***	−0.012^***	−0.012^***	−0.002^**	−0.012^***	−0.002^*
(poorest)		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)
Richest inc. quint.		−0.020^***	−0.016^***	−0.015^***	−0.002	−0.015^***	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)
Know someone		0.091^***	0.094^***	0.089^***	0.010^**	0.092^***	0.013^***
abroad		(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)
Constant	−0.112	0.045	0.132	−0.312	1.283^***	−0.113	1.138^***
	(0.179)	(0.180)	(0.183)	(0.300)	(0.148)	(0.241)	^v
Kleibergen-Paap LM				29.981		46.425
Kleibergen-Paap F				23.560		51.876
Anderson-Rubin F				2.164		2.055
Adjusted R²	0.026	0.083	0.092	0.087		0.091
Observations	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381

Full regression table for emigration desire (inverse of CPI corruption control)

	OLS			IV: Accounts IV accounts: log no. of debit/credit/e-money accounts per capita.		IV: Value/GDP IV value: log monetary value of cashless payments relative to GDP.
				2^nd stage	1^st stage	2^nd stage	1^st stage
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4a)	(4b)	(5a)	(5b)
Corruption V-Dem Political corruption index.	0.093^*	0.097^**	−0.005	0.338^*		0.257^**
	(0.049)	(0.047)	(0.048)	(0.173)		(0.131)
IV: accounts and					−0.008^*		−0.020^***
value					(0.005)		(0.004)
IV: corruption 1950					0.160^***		0.187^***
					(0.023)		(0.023)

Corruption			0.060^***	0.043^***	0.043^***	0.047^***	0.042^***
perception			(0.004)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.004)
Disagree w/work			0.071^***	0.063^***	0.025^***	0.065^***	0.018^***
hard,…			(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.004)

GDP p.c. (log)	−0.039^***	−0.041^***	−0.040^***	−0.031^*	−0.015	−0.033^**	−0.010
	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.018)	(0.015)	(0.017)	(0.015)
GINI	0.201^***	0.098^*	0.158^***	0.137^**	0.080	0.142^**	0.145^**
	(0.057)	(0.059)	(0.058)	(0.064)	(0.060)	(0.061)	(0.065)
Financial	−0.167^***	−0.096^**	−0.112^***	0.008	−0.341^***	−0.020	−0.289^***
development	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.042)	(0.070)	(0.039)	(0.057)	(0.040)
Political stability	−0.018	−0.014	−0.016	0.011	−0.058^***	0.005	−0.063^***
	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.015)	(0.021)	(0.013)	(0.017)	(0.014)
Conflict (>25 BRD)	−0.068^***	−0.071^***	−0.073^***	−0.053^*	−0.047^**	−0.058^**	−0.057^**
	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.025)	(0.031)	(0.023)	(0.029)	(0.024)
Human Freedom	0.074^***	0.077^***	0.062^***	0.087^***	−0.067^***	0.082^***	−0.071^***
Index	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.016)	(0.011)	(0.015)	(0.011)
Female		−0.029^***	−0.031^***	−0.031^***	0.001^**	−0.031^***	0.001^**
		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.000)	(0.003)	(0.000)
Age		−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.000	−0.004^***	−0.000
		(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Medium educ.		0.012^**	0.010	0.009	0.008^**	0.009	0.003
(ref.: low)		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.004)
High education		0.017^***	0.017^***	0.017^***	0.011^**	0.017^***	0.007
(ref.: low)		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.004)
Single		0.040^***	0.043^***	0.044^***	−0.004	0.043^***	−0.002
		(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.003)
No children		0.001	−0.003	−0.006^*	0.010^***	−0.005	0.007^***
		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)
Urban location		0.026^***	0.026^***	0.029^***	−0.011^**	0.028^***	−0.007^*
		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
2nd inc. quint.		−0.006	−0.005	−0.005	0.001	−0.005	0.001
(ref.: poorest)		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.001)
3rd inc. quint.		−0.011^***	−0.009^**	−0.010^***	−0.000	−0.010^***	0.000
(poorest)		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)
4th inc. quint.		−0.015^***	−0.012^***	−0.012^***	−0.002	−0.012^***	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)
Richest inc. quint.		−0.020^***	−0.016^***	−0.015^***	−0.002	−0.015^***	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)
Know someone		0.093^***	0.095^***	0.092^***	0.003	0.093^***	0.005
abroad		(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)
Constant	−0.010	0.138	0.214	−0.273	1.192^***	−0.158	1.091^***
	(0.175)	(0.175)	(0.174)	(0.302)	(0.142)	(0.262)	(0.150)
Kleibergen-Paap LM				30.816		35.904
Kleibergen-Paap F				25.340		36.128
Anderson-Rubin F				2.164		2.055
Adjusted R²	0.025	0.082	0.092	0.086		0.088
Observations	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381

Country coverage 2010–2014 and share of respondents with emigration desire/plans

Country	Desire	Plans	Country	Desire	Plans
Albania	0.444	0.045	Liberia	0.533	0.141
Angola	0.287	0.012	Lithuania	0.207	0.030
Argentina	0.129	0.007	Luxembourg	0.148	0.010
Armenia	0.409	0.055	Malaysia	0.106	0.014
Australia	0.068	0.005	Moldova	0.331	0.037
Austria	0.086	0.005	Morocco	0.271	0.021
Azerbaijan	0.168	0.012	Mozambique	0.189	0.008
Bangladesh	0.245	0.012	Netherlands	0.198	0.007
Bolivia	0.255	0.039	Nigeria	0.458	0.063
Brazil	0.108	0.006	Norway	0.149	0.007
Bulgaria	0.221	0.027	Pakistan	0.142	0.012
Chile	0.217	0.015	Peru	0.294	0.028
Colombia	0.262	0.033	Philippines	0.160	0.017
Costa Rica	0.203	0.020	Poland	0.190	0.019
Croatia	0.190	0.013	Portugal	0.236	0.020
Cyprus	0.279	0.025	Romania	0.242	0.023
Dominican Republic	0.496	0.052	Singapore	0.156	0.010
Ecuador	0.140	0.015	Slovenia	0.208	0.008
Estonia	0.225	0.025	South Africa	0.150	0.014
Ethiopia	0.328	0.040	Spain	0.150	0.020
Finland	0.109	0.009	Sri Lanka	0.154	0.010
France	0.196	0.011	Sweden	0.139	0.006
Georgia	0.150	0.009	Switzerland	0.085	0.002
Germany	0.159	0.004	Thailand	0.025	0.001
Greece	0.216	0.030	Trinidad and Tobago	0.158	0.015
Guatemala	0.302	0.043	Tunisia	0.262	0.033
Honduras	0.450	0.064	Turkey	0.119	0.008
Hungary	0.194	0.024	United Arab Emirates	0.065	0.004
Ireland	0.200	0.016	United Kingdom	0.261	0.008
Israel	0.150	0.008	United States	0.086	0.003
Jamaica	0.415	0.080	Uruguay	0.122	0.013
Japan	0.188	0.001	Vietnam	0.081	0.006
Kazakhstan	0.142	0.008	Zambia	0.270	0.028
Latvia	0.204	0.029

Effect of level of corruption on emigration aspirations

	OLS			IV
				Accounts IV accounts: log no. of debit/credit/e-money accounts per capita.	Value/GDP IV value: log monetary value of cashless payments relative to GDP.
OLS	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Corruption V-Dem Political corruption index.	0.162^*** (0.038)	0.167^*** (0.036)	0.143^*** (0.035)	0.370^** (0.164)	0.167^* (0.093)
Corruption perception			0.056^*** (0.004)	0.050^*** (0.005)	0.056^*** (0.005)
Disagree: hard work pays off			0.067^*** (0.005)	0.062^*** (0.007)	0.067^*** (0.006)
Individual covariates	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Country covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Adjusted R²	0.029	0.086	0.095	0.087	0.095

Observations	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381
First stage

Accounts/value				−0.012^* (0.007)	−0.037^*** (0.008)
Level of corruption 1950 V-Dem Political corruption index.				0.146^*** (0.048)	0.196^*** (0.045)
Weak identification
Kleibergen-Paap F statistic				9.220	30.326
Under-identifying restrictions
Kleibergen-Paap LM stat.				5.361	26.680
Endog. regressors joint sig.
Anderson-F statistic Rubin				2.164	2.055

Effect of level of corruption on plans to emigrate in the next 12 months

	OLS			IV
				Accounts IV accounts: log no. of debit/credit/e-money accounts per capita.	Value/GDP IV value: log monetary value of cashless payments relative to GDP.
OLS	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Corruption V-Dem Political corruption index.	0.020^** (0.009)	0.019^** (0.008)	0.016^** (0.008)	0.105^** (0.041)	0.050^** (0.020)
Corruption perception			0.006^*** (0.001)	0.004^*** (0.001)	0.006^*** (0.001)
Disagree: hard work			0.008^*** (0.001)	0.006^*** (0.002)	0.008^*** (0.001)
pays off
Individual covariates	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Country covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Adjusted R²	0.005	0.023	0.025	0.018	0.022

Observations	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381
First stage

Accounts/value				−0.012^* (0.007)	−0.037^*** (0.008)
Level of corruption 1950 V-Dem Political corruption index.				0.146^*** (0.048)	0.196^*** (0.045)
Weak identification
Kleibergen-Paap F				9.220	30.326
statistic
Under-identifying
restrictions
Kleibergen-Paap LM stat.				5.361	26.680
Endog. regressors joint
sig.
Anderson-Rubin				5.789
F statistic					5.408

Full regression table for plans to emigration within the next 12 months (inverse of WGI corruption control)

	OLS			IV: Accounts IV accounts: log no. of debit/credit/e-money accounts per capita.		IV: Value/GDP IV value: log monetary value of cashless payments relative to GDP.
				2^nd stage	1^st stage	2^nd stage	1^st stage
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4a)	(4b)	(5a)	(5b)
Corruption V-Dem Political corruption index.	0.039^***	0.034^***	0.023^**	0.099^***		0.064^***
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.031)		(0.022)
IV: accounts and					−0.009^*		−0.028^***
value					(0.005)		(0.005)
IV: corruption 1950					0.158^***		0.196^***
					(0.024)		(0.023)

Corruption			0.006^***	0.002	0.043^***	0.004^**	0.041^***
perception			(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.004)
Disagree w/work			0.008^***	0.006^***	0.030^***	0.007^***	0.021^***
hard,…			(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.005)	(0.001)	(0.004)

GDP p.c. (log)	−0.009^*	−0.011^**	−0.010^**	−0.009^*	−0.010	−0.010^*	−0.002
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.015)	(0.005)	(0.014)
GINI	0.032^***	0.015	0.022^**	0.017	0.081	0.019^*	0.172^**
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.012)	(0.063)	(0.011)	(0.067)
Financial	−0.015^*	0.003	0.001	0.030^*	−0.372^***	0.017	−0.295^***
development	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.016)	(0.041)	(0.013)	(0.041)
Political stability	0.001	0.002	0.002	0.007^**	−0.057^***	0.005	−0.063^***
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.013)	(0.003)	(0.013)
Conflict (>25 BRD)	−0.003	−0.004	−0.004	−0.001	−0.036	−0.002	−0.050^**
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.024)	(0.005)	(0.025)
Human Freedom	0.015^***	0.013^***	0.011^***	0.018^***	−0.085^***	0.014^***	−0.091^***
Index	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.012)	(0.003)	(0.011)
Female		−0.006^***	−0.006^***	−0.006^***	0.001^**	−0.006^***	0.001^**
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.000)
Age		−0.000^***	−0.000^***	−0.000^***	−0.000	−0.000^***	−0.000
		(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Medium educ.		0.001	0.001	0.001	0.010^**	0.001	0.003
(ref.: low)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.004)
High education		0.006^***	0.006^***	0.006^***	0.012^**	0.006^***	0.006
(ref.: low)		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.004)
Single		0.007^***	0.007^***	0.008^***	−0.007^*	0.007^***	−0.004
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)
No children		0.003^***	0.003^***	0.002^*	0.011^***	0.002^**	0.007^***
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)
Urban location		0.007^***	0.007^***	0.008^***	−0.012^***	0.008^***	−0.007^*
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.004)
2nd inc. quint.		−0.002^*	−0.002^*	−0.002^*	0.001	−0.002^*	0.000
(ref.: poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
3rd inc. quint.		−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.001	−0.004^***	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
4th inc. quint.		−0.005^***	−0.005^***	−0.005^***	−0.002^**	−0.005^***	−0.002^*
(poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Richest inc. quint.		−0.002	−0.001	−0.001	−0.002	−0.001	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)
Know someone		0.030^***	0.030^***	0.029^***	0.010^**	0.030^***	0.013^***
abroad		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.004)
Constant	−0.031	0.012	0.021	−0.093	1.283^***	−0.040	1.138^***
	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.062)	(0.148)	(0.051)	(0.146)
Kleibergen-Paap LM				29.981		46.425
Kleibergen-Paap F				23.560		51.876
Anderson-Rubin F				5.789		5.408
Adjusted R²	0.007	0.024	0.025	0.022		0.024
Observations	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381

Summary statistics

	Mean	SD	Min	Max	Source	Definition
Emigration desire	0.21	0.41	0.00	1.00	GWP	“Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?”
Emigration plans	0.02	0.14	0.00	1.00	GWP	“Are you planning to move permanently to another country in the next 12 months, or not?”
Level of corruption (V-Dem)	0.40	0.31	0.00	1.00	V-Dem	Index of regime corruption (executive embezzlement, executive bribes, legislative corruption, and judicial corruption)
Initial corruption (1950, V-Dem)	0.37	0.27	0.00	1.00	V-Dem	Corruption index from the year 1950.
Inverse of corrup- tion control WGI	0.51	0.25	0.00	1.00	WB	Inverse of the World Bank Governance Indicator’s assessment of corruption control.
Inverse of corrup- tion control CPI	0.52	0.23	0.00	1.00	TI	Index of perceived level of public sector corruption.
Corruption perception	0.68	0.47	0.00	1.00	GWP	“Is corruption widespread throughout the government in this country, or not?” and “Is corruption widespread within businesses located in this country, or not?”
Disagree with “Work hard, get ahead”	0.27	0.44	0.00	1.00	GWP	“Can people get ahead in this country by working hard or not?”
Female	0.55	0.50	0.00	1.00	GWP	Gender
Age	43.68	17.81	15.00	99.00	GWP	Age in years
Lower education	0.26	0.44	0.00	1.00	GWP	Three-level educational attainment measure.
Medium education	0.56	0.50	0.00	1.00	GWP	Three-level educational attainment measure.
Higher education	0.18	0.39	0.00	1.00	GWP	Three-level educational attainment measure.
Single	0.28	0.45	0.00	1.00	GWP	Person is unmarried.
No children	0.56	0.50	0.00	1.00	GWP	Person does not have minor children.
Urban location	0.43	0.50	0.00	1.00	GWP	Urban area of residence.
Income: Poorest 20% of the country	0.18	0.38	0.00	1.00	GWP	Household income per population quintile.
Income: Second 20% of the country	0.18	0.39	0.00	1.00	GWP	Household income per population quintile.
Income: Middle 20% of the country	0.20	0.40	0.00	1.00	GWP	Household income per population quintile.
Income: Fourth 20% of the country	0.21	0.41	0.00	1.00	GWP	Household income per population quintile.
Income: Richest 20% of the country	0.23	0.42	0.00	1.00	GWP	Household income per population quintile.
Know family/friends abroad	0.31	0.46	0.00	1.00	GWP	“Do you have relatives or someone whom you can rely on living in another country?”
Political Stability	0.03	0.90	−2.80	1.00	WB	Index of perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically-motivated violence, including terrorism
Human Freedom Index	7.40	0.92	5.1	9	Cato	Index of personal, civil, and economic freedom. Human freedom, understood as the absence of coercive constraint.
Conflict (>25 BRD)	0.13	0.33	0.00	1.00	UCDP	Was the country involved in an armed conflict with more than 25 battle-related deaths in a given year?
GDP per capita (log)	9.69	0.89	6.50	11.00	WB	GDP per capita.
Gini index	0.47	0.09	0.30	1.00	GWP	GINI coefficient calculated from GWP household income per capita.
Financial development	0.45	0.23	0.10	1.00	WB	Index (financial depth, access, efficiency, and stability for the financial institutions and financial markets)
IV cashless accounts p.c. (log)	1.20	1.16	0.00	12.00	WB	Number of cashless transactions per capita.
IV value of payments/GDP (log)	−0.62	1.40	−6.30	2.00	WB	Value of cashless payments by GDP per capita.
Observations	282,381

Full regression table for plans to emigration within the next 12 months

	OLS			IV: Accounts IV accounts: log no. of debit/credit/e-money accounts per capita.		IV: Value/GDP IV value: log monetary value of cashless payments relative to GDP.
				2^nd stage	1^st stage	2^nd stage	1^st stage
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4a)	(4b)	(5a)	(5b)
Corruption V-Dem Political corruption index.	0.020^**	0.019^**	0.016^**	0.105^**		0.050^**
	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.041)		(0.020)
IV: accounts and					−0.012^*		−0.037^***
value					(0.007)		(0.008)
IV: corruption 1950					0.146^***		0.196^***
					(0.048)		(0.045)

Corruption			0.006^***	0.004^***	0.018^***	0.006^***	0.016^**
perception			(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.007)	(0.001)	(0.007)
Disagree w/work			0.008^***	0.006^***	0.026^***	0.008^***	0.015^**
hard,…			(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.008)	(0.001)	(0.007)

GDP p.c. (log)	−0.009^*	−0.010^**	−0.010^**	−0.006	−0.035	−0.009^*	−0.025
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.026)	(0.005)	(0.023)
GINI	0.034^***	0.017	0.023^**	0.023	0.014	0.023^**	0.134
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.015)	(0.106)	(0.011)	(0.110)
Financial	−0.025^***	−0.005	−0.003	0.020	−0.244^***	0.005	−0.144^*
development	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.016)	(0.073)	(0.011)	(0.076)
Political stability	−0.001	0.000	0.001	0.006	−0.042^*	0.003	−0.050^**
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.024)	(0.003)	(0.024)
Conflict (>25 BRD)	−0.006	−0.006	−0.006	−0.007	0.021	−0.006	0.003
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.041)	(0.005)	(0.042)
Human Freedom	0.014^***	0.012^***	0.011^***	0.023^***	−0.137^***	0.016^***	−0.144^***
Index	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.025)	(0.004)	(0.024)
Female		−0.006^***	−0.006^***	−0.006^***	−0.000	−0.006^***	−0.000
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Age		−0.000^***	−0.000^***	−0.000^***	−0.000^***	−0.000^***	−0.000^***
		(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Medium educ.		0.001	0.001	0.001	0.008	0.001	−0.001
(ref.: low)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.007)	(0.001)	(0.006)
High education		0.006^***	0.006^***	0.006^***	0.012	0.006^***	0.004
(ref.: low)		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.008)	(0.002)	(0.007)
Single		0.007^***	0.007^***	0.009^***	−0.024^***	0.008^***	−0.021^***
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.006)	(0.002)	(0.005)
No children		0.003^***	0.003^***	0.002^*	0.010^***	0.002^**	0.005
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.001)	(0.003)
Urban location		0.007^***	0.008^***	0.009^***	−0.022^***	0.008^***	−0.015^**
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.008)	(0.001)	(0.007)
2nd inc. quint.		−0.002^*	−0.002^*	−0.002^**	0.003	−0.002^**	0.002
(ref.: poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)
3rd inc. quint.		−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.004^***	−0.002	−0.004^***	−0.001
(poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)
4th inc. quint.		−0.005^***	−0.005^***	−0.005^***	0.001	−0.005^***	0.001
(poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)
Richest inc. quint.		−0.002	−0.002	−0.002	0.003	−0.002	0.004
(poorest)		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.003)
Know someone		0.030^***	0.031^***	0.029^***	0.011^*	0.030^***	0.014^**
abroad		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.006)	(0.002)	(0.006)
Constant	−0.011	0.025	0.023	−0.156^*	1.810^***	−0.045	1.619^***
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.092)	(0.233)	(0.055)	(0.225)
Kleibergen-Paap LM				9.220		30.326
Kleibergen-Paap F				5.361		26.680
Anderson-Rubin F statistic				5.789		5.408
Adjusted R²	0.007	0.024	0.025	0.015		0.023
Observations	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381	282,381

eISSN:: 2520-1786
Language:: English

Publication timeframe:: Volume Open
Journal Subjects:: Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics

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Corruption and the Desire to Leave Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Corruption as a Driver of Emigration Intentions

Published Online: May 02, 2020

Page range: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0007

Keywords
corruption, governance, migration, push factor, emigration intention

© 2020 Daniel Auer, Friederike Römer and Jasper Tjaden, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure A1

Sub-sample analysis

Full regression table for emigration desire

Full regression table for plans to emigration within the next 12 months (inverse of CPI corruption control)

Full regression table for emigration desire (inverse of WGI corruption control)

Full regression table for emigration desire (inverse of CPI corruption control)

Country coverage 2010–2014 and share of respondents with emigration desire/plans

Effect of level of corruption on emigration aspirations

Effect of level of corruption on plans to emigrate in the next 12 months

Full regression table for plans to emigration within the next 12 months (inverse of WGI corruption control)

Summary statistics

Full regression table for plans to emigration within the next 12 months

Corruption and the Desire to Leave Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Corruption as a Driver of Emigration Intentions

Published Online: May 02, 2020

Page range: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0007

Keywordscorruption, governance, migration, push factor, emigration intention

© 2020 Daniel Auer, Friederike Römer and Jasper Tjaden, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure A1

Sub-sample analysis

Full regression table for emigration desire

Full regression table for plans to emigration within the next 12 months (inverse of CPI corruption control)

Full regression table for emigration desire (inverse of WGI corruption control)

Full regression table for emigration desire (inverse of CPI corruption control)

Country coverage 2010–2014 and share of respondents with emigration desire/plans

Effect of level of corruption on emigration aspirations

Effect of level of corruption on plans to emigrate in the next 12 months

Full regression table for plans to emigration within the next 12 months (inverse of WGI corruption control)

Summary statistics

Full regression table for plans to emigration within the next 12 months

Keywords
corruption, governance, migration, push factor, emigration intention